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Stalemate at Slavia Praha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha and Plzen finished level at 0-0 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.99 xG and Plzen 1.11 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slavia Praha fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Plzen landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.43 / defence 0.78 against Plzen attack 1.19 / defence 0.97, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 57% | Draw 24% | Plzen 19%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 53%, Plzen 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slavia Praha's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and duly kept one.

Plzen's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights