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Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out Plzen 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Plzen 4-3 at Fortuna Arena, Championship Round - 2, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.44 xG and Plzen 0.88 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Plzen outscored their 0.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.30 / defence 0.58 against Plzen attack 1.27 / defence 0.82, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 50% | Draw 27% | Plzen 23%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 54%, Plzen 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slavia Praha's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.

Plzen's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 2.09. Form held, and they took the win. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights