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Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Pardubice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Pardubice 3-1 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.88 xG and Pardubice 0.93 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.25 / defence 0.85 against Pardubice attack 0.90 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 60% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 18%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 52%, Pardubice 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slavia Praha's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and conceded here.

Pardubice's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 0.72. Form held, and they took the win. Pardubice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights