🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out Mlada Boleslav 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Mlada Boleslav 1-0 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.76 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.02 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mlada Boleslav landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.32 / defence 0.74 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.15 / defence 0.91, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 54% | Draw 24% | Mlada Boleslav 21%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 57%, Mlada Boleslav 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slavia Praha's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights