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Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Karviná.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Karviná 3-1 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.86 xG and Karviná 1.25 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.28 / defence 0.87 against Karviná attack 1.17 / defence 1.07, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 51% | Draw 23% | Karviná 25%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 56%, Karviná 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slavia Praha's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.

Karviná's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.56 PPG against 1.36. That form edge translated into the three points. Karviná (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights