🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Slavia Praha at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 11 as Slavia Praha welcome Hradec Králové to Fortuna Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slavia Praha have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Slavia Praha haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Slavia Praha's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Fortuna Arena this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Arena. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Slavia Praha are significantly better at Fortuna Arena than their overall form suggests.

Hradec Králové — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hradec Králové haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Hradec Králové's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Slavia Praha) versus 2.20 (Hradec Králové). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Slavia Praha, 4 for Hradec Králové and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Hradec Králové winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Slavia Praha in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 59% versus Hradec Králové 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 59% | Hradec Králové 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.47 xG and Hradec Králové 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.120 / defence 0.882 | Hradec Králové attack 1.024 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.204. Data: 30 Slavia Praha games / 30 Hradec Králové games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 45% | Draw 28% | Hradec Králové 27%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Hradec Králové 3.70. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Slavia Praha 50% | Hradec Králové 50%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights