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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové finished level at 2-2 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.54 xG and Hradec Králové 1.12 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hradec Králové outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.13 / defence 0.81 against Hradec Králové attack 1.03 / defence 0.99, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 47% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 28%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 56%, Hradec Králové 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slavia Praha's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and conceded here.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.62 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights