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Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out Hradec Králové 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Hradec Králové 2-1 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.75 xG and Hradec Králové 0.60 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.30 / defence 0.56 against Hradec Králové attack 0.94 / defence 0.96, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 64% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 11%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 54%, Hradec Králové 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slavia Praha's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 1.41. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights