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Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out FK Jablonec 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat FK Jablonec 4-3 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.44 xG and FK Jablonec 0.84 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FK Jablonec outscored their 0.84 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.37 / defence 0.71 against FK Jablonec attack 0.94 / defence 0.78, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 50% | Draw 28% | FK Jablonec 21%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 53%, FK Jablonec 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slavia Praha's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.

FK Jablonec's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 1.85. That form edge translated into the three points. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.41 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights