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Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FK Jablonec.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat FK Jablonec 3-0 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.81 xG and FK Jablonec 0.72 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.27 / defence 0.58 against FK Jablonec attack 1.09 / defence 1.03, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 63% | Draw 24% | FK Jablonec 14%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 53%, FK Jablonec 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slavia Praha's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and duly kept one.

FK Jablonec's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.37. That form edge translated into the three points. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights