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Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dukla Praha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Dukla Praha 2-0 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.99 xG and Dukla Praha 0.85 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dukla Praha landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.38 / defence 0.85 against Dukla Praha attack 0.82 / defence 1.08, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 62% | Draw 24% | Dukla Praha 14%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 54%, Dukla Praha 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slavia Praha's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.

Dukla Praha's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights