Slavia Praha 3-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slavia Praha at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians 1905 make the trip to Fortuna Arena to face Slavia Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Slavia Praha (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slavia Praha at Fortuna Arena this season: 10W 0D 0L from 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Arena. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Slavia Praha are significantly better at Fortuna Arena than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians 1905 have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Slavia Praha, 2.00 for Bohemians 1905 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Slavia Praha lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 4–1 with Slavia Praha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Slavia Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 45% versus Bohemians 1905 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 60% | Bohemians 1905 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 2.42 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.620 / defence 0.670 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.234 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.248. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.620 — their λ of 2.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bohemians 1905 have an above-average attack strength of 1.234 — the away xG of 1.03 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Slavia Praha's defence rating of 0.670 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Slavia Praha games / 57 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 68% | Draw 18% | Bohemians 1905 14%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | Bohemians 1905 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.45 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slavia Praha 50% | Bohemians 1905 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 68% | Draw 18% | Bohemians 1905 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 59% | xG Slavia Praha 2.42 / Bohemians 1905 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.620 / def 0.670 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.234 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Bohemians 1905 xG
59%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Slavia Praha 3 - 0 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 68% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905?
Record (2 meetings): Slavia Praha 2W | Draws 0 | Bohemians 1905 0W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Slavia Praha's attacking strength (1.62x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.42. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (1.23x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.3%), 1-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
68%
1.47
18%
5.55
14%
7.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
3.45
1.03
Bohemians 1905 xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.55
18%
Draw
7.05
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
9%
11.27
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
1%
79.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 1.03 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.21 PPG on a 42W 11D 9L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 23W 15D 24L from 62 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians 1905.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 2.74 PPG from 31 outings (28W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 2.21 PPG overall — Slavia Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 11W 7D 13L from 31 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.52 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 42W 11D 9L in their last 62 games (2.21 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 23W 15D 24L in their last 62 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.74 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Slavia Praha have taken the last 10 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 6-0 on 7 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 6W 0D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Slavia Praha
0
Draws
0
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 10, Bohemians 1905 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Slavia Praha 3-1 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 36%, Bohemians 1905 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Slavia Praha and 61% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 61% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Slavia Praha's matches and 61% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Bohemians 1905 3-0 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 2.42 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.03 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.62 / defence 0.67 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.23 / defence 0.94, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 68% | Draw 18% | Bohemians 1905 14%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 60%, Bohemians 1905 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.35. That form edge translated into the three points. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.