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Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bohemians 1905.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Bohemians 1905 3-1 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.29 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.76 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.24 / defence 0.69 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.86 / defence 0.83, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 47% | Draw 33% | Bohemians 1905 20%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 51%, Bohemians 1905 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slavia Praha's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights