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Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bohemians 1905.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Bohemians 1905 2-0 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.44 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.74 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.19 / defence 0.60 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.02 / defence 0.82, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 53% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 19%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 55%, Bohemians 1905 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slavia Praha's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights