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Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Baník Ostrava.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Baník Ostrava 2-0 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.39 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.63 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.28 / defence 0.72 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.74 / defence 0.93, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 52% | Draw 35% | Baník Ostrava 14%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 50%, Baník Ostrava 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slavia Praha's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one.

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.69. That form edge translated into the three points. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights