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Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Baník Ostrava.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Baník Ostrava 3-0 at Fortuna Arena, Championship Round - 5, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.35 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.86 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Baník Ostrava landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.27 / defence 0.62 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.15 / defence 0.78, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 48% | Draw 28% | Baník Ostrava 24%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 56%, Baník Ostrava 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slavia Praha's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and duly kept one.

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 1.74. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights