Sigma Olomouc 1-0 Zlin – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc host Zlin at Andruv stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sigma Olomouc — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 4W 1D 5L at Andruv stadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have recorded 3W 1D 0L from 4 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Zlin's 2.50 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Sigma Olomouc's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sigma Olomouc register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Zlin in 75% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, Zlin 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 2–3 with Zlin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Zlin in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 25% versus Zlin 75%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sigma Olomouc 25% | Zlin 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.17 xG and Zlin 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.971 / defence 0.878 | Zlin attack 1.066 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.237. Data: 34 Sigma Olomouc games / 4 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 36% | Draw 30% | Zlin 35%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Zlin 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Sigma Olomouc dominate the H2H record, yet Zlin are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Sigma Olomouc are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zlin (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Sigma Olomouc 60% | Zlin 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 36% | Draw 30% | Zlin 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.17 / Zlin 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.971 / def 0.878 | Zlin attack 1.066 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Zlin xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at Andruv stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 0 Zlin.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 36% chance of winning, Zlin a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Zlin?
Record (6 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 3W | Draws 2 | Zlin 1W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Zlin in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Zlin (all comps): 3W-1D-0L in 4 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sigma Olomouc's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
36%
2.82
30%
3.38
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.33
1.16
Zlin xG
2.82
36%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
11%
8.96
11%
9.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.3 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.16 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 4 games, going 2W 1D 1L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zlin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Zlin's attacking output running into Sigma Olomouc's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Zlin in 75%.
Defensively: Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
Zlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Zlin in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Zlin have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 (2.50 PPG).
Have Sigma Olomouc or Zlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Zlin in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sigma Olomouc and Zlin runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Dec 2025, when Zlin won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
2
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Zlin?
From 8 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, Zlin have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Zlin 5-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Zlin?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 25%, Zlin 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Sigma Olomouc) and 50% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sigma Olomouc have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 75% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 50% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Zlin tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Zlin in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sigma Olomouc edge out Zlin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Zlin 1-0 at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.17 xG and Zlin 1.16 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Zlin landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.97 / defence 0.88 against Zlin attack 1.07 / defence 0.90, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 36% | Draw 30% | Zlin 35%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 25%, Zlin 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Zlin's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Zlin arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.75. Form was overturned, with Sigma Olomouc winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zlin managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.