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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Sigma Olomouc 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.63 xG and Sparta Praha 1.64 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.20 / defence 1.05 against Sparta Praha attack 1.27 / defence 0.89, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 38% | Draw 23% | Sparta Praha 39%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 64%, Sparta Praha 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Sparta Praha's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights