Sigma Olomouc 1-0 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec meet at Andrův stadion in Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Sigma Olomouc at Andrův stadion this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Slovan Liberec have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Slovan Liberec have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 43% versus Slovan Liberec 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sigma Olomouc 43% | Slovan Liberec 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.23 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.878 / defence 0.879 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.674 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.086. Slovan Liberec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Sigma Olomouc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Sigma Olomouc games / 30 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 50% | Draw 31% | Slovan Liberec 19%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Slovan Liberec 5.26. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Slovan Liberec's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sigma Olomouc are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.87 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 40% | Slovan Liberec 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 50% | Draw 31% | Slovan Liberec 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 34% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.23 / Slovan Liberec 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.878 / def 0.879 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.674 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Slovan Liberec xG
34%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 0 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec is a Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 50% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sigma Olomouc's attack rating (0.88) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (0.67x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (17.0%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
50%
2.00
31%
3.25
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
1.87
0.64
Slovan Liberec xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
26%
3.80
6%
17.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 9.9 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 12.2 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 0.64 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 9W 10D 11L from 30 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Slovan Liberec, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 13L across 30 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.23 for Slovan Liberec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 6W 7D 2L from 15 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Sigma Olomouc are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Slovan Liberec's away record stands at 3W 5D 7L across 15 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 0.97 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Current Season
Slovan Liberec
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 9W 10D 11L in their last 30 games (1.23 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 10W 7D 13L in their last 30 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.67 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 1-4 on 24 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
3
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, Slovan Liberec have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Slovan Liberec 1-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 47%, Slovan Liberec 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Sigma Olomouc) and 40% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sigma Olomouc have failed to score in 27% of games; Slovan Liberec in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 53% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 40% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sigma Olomouc edge out Slovan Liberec 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Slovan Liberec 1-0 at Andrův stadion, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.23 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.64 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.88 / defence 0.88 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.67 / defence 1.21, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 50% | Draw 31% | Slovan Liberec 19%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 43%, Slovan Liberec 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.23 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.