🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Sigma Olomouc defy the odds to beat Slovan Liberec 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sigma Olomouc beat Slovan Liberec 2-1 at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.32 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.40 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.91 / defence 0.89 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.21 / defence 1.09, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 35% | Draw 27% | Slovan Liberec 39%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Sigma Olomouc win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 68%, Slovan Liberec 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.24 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights