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Stalemate at Sigma Olomouc's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 13, as Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 0.96 xG and Slavia Praha 0.85 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Slavia Praha landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.01 / defence 0.65 against Slavia Praha attack 1.12 / defence 0.81, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 33% | Draw 41% | Slavia Praha 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 55%, Slavia Praha 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Slavia Praha's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights