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Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Sigma Olomouc.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Sigma Olomouc 0-5 at Andrův stadion, Championship Round - 1, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 0.98 xG and Slavia Praha 1.60 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.60 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.12 / defence 1.07 against Slavia Praha attack 1.24 / defence 0.65, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 23% | Draw 25% | Slavia Praha 52%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 64%, Slavia Praha 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Slavia Praha's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights