🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Sigma Olomouc 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2 at Andrův stadion, Championship Round - 4, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.25 xG and Plzen 1.60 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.12 / defence 1.06 against Plzen attack 1.25 / defence 0.83, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 30% | Draw 25% | Plzen 45%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 65%, Plzen 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Plzen's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights