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Shock result as Sigma Olomouc defy the odds to beat Plzen 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sigma Olomouc beat Plzen 2-1 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.22 xG and Plzen 1.65 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.00 / defence 1.25 against Plzen attack 1.12 / defence 0.84, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 28% | Draw 25% | Plzen 47%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Sigma Olomouc win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 63%, Plzen 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Plzen's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Sigma Olomouc winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights