Sigma Olomouc 1-3 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plzen at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 19 as Sigma Olomouc welcome Plzen to Andrův stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 December 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Andrův stadion, Sigma Olomouc have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Plzen — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Plzen have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Sigma Olomouc) versus 1.60 (Plzen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sigma Olomouc register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Plzen in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Sigma Olomouc have won 1, Plzen 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Plzen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Plzen in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sigma Olomouc 58% and Plzen 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 56% | Plzen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.34 xG and Plzen 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.956 / defence 1.031 | Plzen attack 1.412 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.170. Plzen have an above-average attack strength of 1.412 — the away xG of 1.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Sigma Olomouc games / 47 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 30% | Draw 24% | Plzen 46%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Plzen 2.17. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 60% | Plzen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 30% | Draw 24% | Plzen 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.34 / Plzen 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.956 / def 1.031 | Plzen attack 1.412 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.557 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Plzen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Plzen xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 December 2023 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 3 Plzen.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 30% chance of winning, Plzen a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen?
Record (4 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 1W | Draws 1 | Plzen 2W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Plzen (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 0.96x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
30%
3.29
24%
4.22
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
3.05
1.70
Plzen xG
3.29
30%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
18%
5.49
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
6%
18.08
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.70 for Plzen, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Sigma Olomouc have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 20W 16D 16L record — D-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen's form line: 28W 9D 15L from 52 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sigma Olomouc on 1.46 PPG, Plzen on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sigma Olomouc have posted 1.48 PPG from 25 outings (10W 7D 8L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 12W 5D 8L from 25 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.96 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen in 63%.
Last 52 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 20W 16D 16L in their last 52 games (1.46 PPG), while Plzen have gone 28W 9D 15L in their last 52 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.48 PPG; Plzen away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sigma Olomouc
1
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, Plzen have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 64%, Plzen 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Sigma Olomouc and 64% for Plzen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Plzen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 64% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 64% of Plzen's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Plzen tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Plzen in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sigma Olomouc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Sigma Olomouc 1-3 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.34 xG and Plzen 1.70 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Plzen outscored their 1.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.96 / defence 1.03 against Plzen attack 1.41 / defence 0.90, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 30% | Draw 24% | Plzen 46%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 56%, Plzen 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.46 PPG, Plzen 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plzen win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.