Sigma Olomouc 2-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice meet at Andruv stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 November 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's home record at Andruv stadion: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Andruv stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Pardubice (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Sigma Olomouc's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Pardubice's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Sigma Olomouc 3W, Pardubice 1W, 3D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2025, ended 4–0 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 55% versus Pardubice 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 55% | Pardubice 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.38 xG and Pardubice 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.920 / defence 0.596 | Pardubice attack 1.009 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.195. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Sigma Olomouc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sigma Olomouc's defence rating of 0.596 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Sigma Olomouc games / 44 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 50% | Draw 33% | Pardubice 17%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.00 | Draw 3.03 | Pardubice 5.88. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 20% | Pardubice 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 50% | Draw 33% | Pardubice 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.38 / Pardubice 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.920 / def 0.596 | Pardubice attack 1.009 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.227 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Pardubice xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Andruv stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
Sigma Olomouc 2 - 0 Pardubice.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 50% chance of winning, Pardubice a 17% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice?
Record (7 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 3W | Draws 3 | Pardubice 1W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Pardubice (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sigma Olomouc's attack rating (0.92) and Pardubice's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (1.01x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (0.60x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
50%
2.00
33%
2.99
17%
5.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.10
0.72
Pardubice xG
2.00
50%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
5.98
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
4%
23.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.2 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 0.72 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Sigma Olomouc have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 18W 14D 17L record — D-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pardubice's form line: 9W 13D 27L from 49 games, 0.82 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sigma Olomouc are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pardubice.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sigma Olomouc have posted 1.58 PPG from 24 outings (11W 5D 8L).
On the road, Pardubice have gone 1W 6D 17L from 24 away games — 0.38 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pardubice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 0.86 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 18W 14D 17L in their last 49 games (1.39 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 9W 13D 27L in their last 49 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Pardubice away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.58 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 1-5 on 27 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, Pardubice have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 3-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 58%, Pardubice 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Sigma Olomouc and 50% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Pardubice in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 42% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 50% of Pardubice's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Pardubice 2-0 at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.38 xG and Pardubice 0.72 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.92 / defence 0.60 against Pardubice attack 1.01 / defence 1.22, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 50% | Draw 33% | Pardubice 17%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 55%, Pardubice 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Pardubice's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sigma Olomouc arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.