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Dominant Sigma Olomouc run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Karviná.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sigma Olomouc beat Karviná 4-0 at Andruv stadion, Final, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.56 xG and Karviná 1.30 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Karviná landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.03 / defence 1.05 against Karviná attack 1.03 / defence 1.10, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 43% | Draw 27% | Karviná 31%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 60%, Karviná 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Karviná's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.34 PPG, Karviná 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights