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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Karviná defy the odds to beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karviná beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 2.17 xG and Karviná 1.34 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.11 / defence 1.16 against Karviná attack 0.99 / defence 1.39, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 55% | Draw 22% | Karviná 22%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Karviná win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 63%, Karviná 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Karviná's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.29 PPG, Karviná 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights