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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Hradec Králové travel to Andruv stadion to take on Sigma Olomouc. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 January 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Andruv stadion, Sigma Olomouc have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Andruv stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sigma Olomouc are significantly better at Andruv stadion than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Hradec Králové away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sigma Olomouc 1.30 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Hradec Králové, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for Sigma Olomouc.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Hradec Králové winning.

It is worth noting that Hradec Králové have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Data

Sigma Olomouc trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Hradec Králové trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 53% versus Hradec Králové 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 55% | Hradec Králové 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.38 xG and Hradec Králové 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.860 / defence 0.675 | Hradec Králové attack 1.079 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.267. Sigma Olomouc's defence rating of 0.675 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Sigma Olomouc games / 49 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 47% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 24%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Hradec Králové 4.17. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 20% | Hradec Králové 70% BTTS from recent games.

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