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Shock result as Hradec Králové defy the odds to beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hradec Králové beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.70 xG and Hradec Králové 1.11 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hradec Králové outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.20 / defence 1.15 against Hradec Králové attack 0.87 / defence 1.01, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 50% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 24%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Hradec Králové win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 63%, Hradec Králové 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.32 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights