Sigma Olomouc 0-0 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec meet at Andrův stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 4W 2D 4L at Andrův stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, FK Jablonec have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.40 for FK Jablonec. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sigma Olomouc lead 2W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sigma Olomouc 67% and FK Jablonec 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 60% | FK Jablonec 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.16 xG and FK Jablonec 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.163 / defence 1.245 | FK Jablonec attack 1.127 / defence 0.717. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.304. FK Jablonec's defence strength of 0.717 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Sigma Olomouc games / 41 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 22% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 52%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 4.55 | Draw 3.85 | FK Jablonec 1.92. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 80% | FK Jablonec 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 22% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.16 / FK Jablonec 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.163 / def 1.245 | FK Jablonec attack 1.127 / def 0.717 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.83
FK Jablonec xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Sigma Olomouc 0 - 0 FK Jablonec.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 22% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 52% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec?
Record (4 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 2W | Draws 2 | FK Jablonec 0W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sigma Olomouc's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (1.13x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
22%
4.47
26%
3.83
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.99
1.83
FK Jablonec xG
4.47
22%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
16%
6.23
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
4%
27.89
16%
6.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.83 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 15W 10D 18L from 43 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 14W 14D 15L across 43 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.30 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 8W 5D 7L from 20 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 5W 6D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.37 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 15W 10D 18L in their last 43 games (1.28 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 14W 14D 15L in their last 43 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or FK Jablonec away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.45 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 4-0 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sigma Olomouc
4
Draws
2
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, FK Jablonec have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when FK Jablonec 2-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 65%, FK Jablonec 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Sigma Olomouc) and 40% (FK Jablonec). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play FK Jablonec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 45% of FK Jablonec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 40% of FK Jablonec's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sigma Olomouc's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 13, as Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.16 xG and FK Jablonec 1.83 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc fell 1.2 short of their projected output. FK Jablonec landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.16 / defence 1.25 against FK Jablonec attack 1.13 / defence 0.72, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 22% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 52%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 60%, FK Jablonec 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.28 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.