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Dominant Sigma Olomouc run riot with a 3-0 hammering of České Budějovice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sigma Olomouc beat České Budějovice 3-0 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 2.06 xG and České Budějovice 0.96 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. České Budějovice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.06 / defence 1.16 against České Budějovice attack 0.69 / defence 1.44, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 62% | Draw 22% | České Budějovice 16%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 64%, České Budějovice 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

České Budějovice's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Sigma Olomouc arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.57. Form held, and they took the win. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights