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Prediction vindicated as Sigma Olomouc edge out Baník Ostrava 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sigma Olomouc beat Baník Ostrava 1-0 at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.17 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.91 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Baník Ostrava landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.94 / defence 0.80 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 36/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 41% | Draw 31% | Baník Ostrava 28%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 64%, Baník Ostrava 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Sigma Olomouc winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights