Sigma Olomouc vs Artis – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Artis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 17 as Sigma Olomouc welcome Artis to Andruv stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sigma Olomouc — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Andruv stadion this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Artis stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Artis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Artis have posted 1W 1D 3L from 5 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Sigma Olomouc have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sigma Olomouc register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Artis in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sigma Olomouc, 0 for Artis and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2026, ended 2–1 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sigma Olomouc in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Artis in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sigma Olomouc 70% and Artis 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sigma Olomouc 90% | Artis 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.99 xG and Artis 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.312 / defence 0.909 | Artis attack 0.832 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.267. Sigma Olomouc carry an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 Sigma Olomouc games / 7 Artis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 60% | Draw 23% | Artis 17%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Artis 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Sigma Olomouc (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 70% | Artis 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Artis | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 60% | Draw 23% | Artis 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 54% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.99 / Artis 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.312 / def 0.909 | Artis attack 0.832 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Artis xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Artis kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Artis is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Andruv stadion.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Artis being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Artis part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Artis is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Artis?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 60% chance of winning, Artis a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Artis?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Artis will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Artis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Artis?
Record (1 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 1W | Draws 0 | Artis 0W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Artis in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Artis (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sigma Olomouc's attack rating (1.31) and Artis's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Artis's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
60%
1.66
23%
4.32
17%
6.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.95
0.96
Artis xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
6.06
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
14%
7.31
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
2%
44.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Artis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Artis expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 0.96 for Artis, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Artis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 10 games, going 6W 1D 3L for 1.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Artis sit at 0.40 PPG from 10 outings (1W 1D 8L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Artis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Artis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Artis have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L). That's actually stronger than their 0.40 PPG overall record — Artis travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Artis are on 0.80 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Artis in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
Artis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Artis in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 games (1.90 PPG), while Artis have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 (0.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Artis away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 2.00 PPG; Artis away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Sigma Olomouc
0
Draws
0
Artis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Artis?
From 1 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 1, Artis have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Artis last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Artis 1-2 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Artis?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Artis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 60%, Artis 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Sigma Olomouc and 60% for Artis. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Artis in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Artis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Artis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 60% of Artis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Artis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 60% of Artis's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Artis tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Artis in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.