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Shock result as Zlin defy the odds to beat Plzen 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zlin beat Plzen 0-1 at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.52 xG and Zlin 0.97 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Plzen fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.07 / defence 0.87 against Zlin attack 0.90 / defence 1.08, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plzen 48% | Draw 30% | Zlin 22%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Zlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 44%, Zlin 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plzen's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Zlin's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Plzen 1.67 PPG, Zlin 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zlin win broke the near-deadlock. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Zlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights