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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Plzen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sparta Praha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat Sparta Praha 2-0 at Doosan Aréna, Championship Round - 1, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.67 xG and Sparta Praha 1.49 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sparta Praha landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.42 / defence 1.07 against Sparta Praha attack 1.15 / defence 0.86, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plzen 42% | Draw 24% | Sparta Praha 34%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 57%, Sparta Praha 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plzen's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sparta Praha's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Plzen 2.08 PPG, Sparta Praha 2.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plzen win broke the near-deadlock. Plzen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights