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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Plzen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Slovan Liberec.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat Slovan Liberec 3-1 at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.40 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.72 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.13 / defence 1.10 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.29 / defence 0.88, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plzen 31% | Draw 25% | Slovan Liberec 45%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 54%, Slovan Liberec 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plzen's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.52. Form held, and they took the win. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights