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Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Slovan Liberec 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat Slovan Liberec 3-2 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.83 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.09 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Slovan Liberec outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.40 / defence 0.91 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.02 / defence 0.89, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plzen 54% | Draw 23% | Slovan Liberec 22%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 60%, Slovan Liberec 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plzen's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. Plzen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights