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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Plzen and Slovácko share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen and Slovácko finished level at 1-1 at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.60 xG and Slovácko 1.11 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.12 / defence 0.99 against Slovácko attack 0.87 / defence 1.09, drawn from 32/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Plzen 48% | Draw 26% | Slovácko 26%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 54%, Slovácko 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plzen's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Slovácko's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Slovácko (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights