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Plzen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Slovácko.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat Slovácko 2-0 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 2.31 xG and Slovácko 1.17 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Slovácko landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.28 / defence 1.10 against Slovácko attack 0.93 / defence 1.31, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plzen 62% | Draw 20% | Slovácko 18%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 57%, Slovácko 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plzen's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Slovácko's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Plzen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights