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Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over Plzen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Plzen 3-5 at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 0.98 xG and Slavia Praha 1.15 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.15 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.13 / defence 0.95 against Slavia Praha attack 1.01 / defence 0.71, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plzen 28% | Draw 36% | Slavia Praha 36%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 51%, Slavia Praha 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plzen's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Slavia Praha's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 2.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights