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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Plzen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Plzen 1-3 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.34 xG and Slavia Praha 1.44 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.43 / defence 1.00 against Slavia Praha attack 1.22 / defence 0.61, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plzen 35% | Draw 25% | Slavia Praha 40%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 58%, Slavia Praha 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plzen's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Slavia Praha's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 2.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights