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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Sigma Olomouc 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat Sigma Olomouc 1-0 at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.25 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.89 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sigma Olomouc landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.10 / defence 0.96 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.77 / defence 0.82, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plzen 44% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 26%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 52%, Sigma Olomouc 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plzen's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights