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Shock result as Pardubice defy the odds to beat Plzen 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pardubice beat Plzen 0-1 at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.64 xG and Pardubice 1.22 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Plzen fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.17 / defence 0.95 against Pardubice attack 1.09 / defence 0.98, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plzen 45% | Draw 29% | Pardubice 26%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Pardubice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 54%, Pardubice 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plzen's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Pardubice's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Pardubice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Pardubice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights