🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Mlada Boleslav 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat Mlada Boleslav 2-1 at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.86 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.49 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.19 / defence 1.21 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.96 / defence 1.14, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plzen 45% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 30%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 53%, Mlada Boleslav 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plzen's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights