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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Plzen defy the odds to beat Karviná 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat Karviná 2-1 at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.45 xG and Karviná 1.50 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.06 / defence 0.99 against Karviná attack 1.20 / defence 1.02, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plzen 36% | Draw 25% | Karviná 38%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 54%, Karviná 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plzen's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Karviná's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights