Plzen 5-0 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plzen at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plzen vs Karviná fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Karviná travel to Doosan Aréna to take on Plzen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 August 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 7W 2D 1L at Doosan Aréna — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Doosan Aréna.
Karviná — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Karviná have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Karviná's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Plzen at 1.90 PPG versus Karviná's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Plzen, 1 for Karviná and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Plzen in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Karviná in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 58% versus Karviná 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 60% | Karviná 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.33 xG and Karviná 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.114 / defence 0.858 | Karviná attack 0.993 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.053. Data: 33 Plzen games / 32 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 47% | Draw 28% | Karviná 25%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Karviná 4.00. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 40% | Karviná 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 47% | Draw 28% | Karviná 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Plzen 1.33 / Karviná 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.114 / def 0.858 | Karviná attack 0.993 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Plzen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Karviná xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Karviná kick off?
Plzen vs Karviná kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Karviná?
Plzen 5 - 0 Karviná.
Where is Plzen vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Karviná part of?
Plzen vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 47% chance of winning, Karviná a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Plzen and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Karviná?
Record (4 meetings): Plzen 2W | Draws 1 | Karviná 1W.
What form are Plzen and Karviná in?
Plzen (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Karviná (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Plzen's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Karviná's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Karviná's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
47%
2.14
28%
3.57
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.23
0.90
Karviná xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
7%
15.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.9 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Plzen and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Plzen and 0.90 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen come into this having played 38 games, going 23W 8D 7L for 2.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 1.00 PPG from 38 outings (10W 8D 20L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Karviná, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.03 PPG clear of Karviná — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Plzen's home form reads 13W 3D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Karviná have taken 1.00 points per game from 19 outings (5W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.00 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Early Season
Karviná
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Karviná in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 23W 8D 7L in their last 38 games (2.03 PPG), while Karviná have gone 10W 8D 20L in their last 38 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Karviná away?
Plzen's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.21 PPG; Karviná away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Plzen or Karviná been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Karviná in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plzen and Karviná runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Plzen have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Aug 2024, when Plzen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Karviná specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Plzen
1
Draws
1
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Karviná?
From 8 meetings on record, Plzen have won 6, Karviná have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Karviná 0-2 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Karviná?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 53%, Karviná 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Plzen) and 53% (Karviná). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Karviná in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Karviná?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Plzen's recent matches and 47% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Plzen's matches and 53% of Karviná's.
Do Plzen and Karviná tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Karviná in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Karviná.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Karviná 5-0 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.33 xG and Karviná 0.90 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Karviná landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.11 / defence 0.86 against Karviná attack 0.99 / defence 0.89, drawn from 33/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 47% | Draw 28% | Karviná 25%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 60%, Karviná 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Karviná's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.37 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.