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Poisson rates Plzen at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Hradec Králové encounter.

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Analysis

Hradec Králové make the trip to Doosan Arena to face Plzen in Czech Liga, Championship Group - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Current Form

Plzen's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home at Doosan Arena, Plzen have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Hradec Králové (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

Hradec Králové's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Plzen against 2.20 for Hradec Králové. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours Plzen, who have won 5 of the last 9 meetings against Hradec Králové — a 3D 1W return for the visitors.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 3–0 with Plzen winning.

The historical record gives Plzen a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

Plzen half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Hradec Králové half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 50% versus Hradec Králové 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 52% | Hradec Králové 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.26 xG and Hradec Králové 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.053 / defence 0.928 | Hradec Králové attack 1.050 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.200. Data: 60 Plzen games / 60 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Plzen 37% | Draw 30% | Hradec Králové 33%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Hradec Králové 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plzen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Plzen 50% | Hradec Králové 40%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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