🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Plzen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hradec Králové.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat Hradec Králové 3-1 at Doosan Arena, Championship Group - 1, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.26 xG and Hradec Králové 1.17 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.05 / defence 0.93 against Hradec Králové attack 1.05 / defence 0.86, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plzen 37% | Draw 30% | Hradec Králové 33%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 52%, Hradec Králové 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plzen's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.53. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights