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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Plzen and Hradec Králové share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen and Hradec Králové finished level at 3-3 at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.36 xG and Hradec Králové 1.17 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hradec Králové outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 0.96 / defence 0.89 against Hradec Králové attack 1.07 / defence 1.14, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plzen 39% | Draw 32% | Hradec Králové 30%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 50%, Hradec Králové 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plzen's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights